As mentioned in the earlier forecast, no widespread heavy rainfall was expected today, and the weather has evolved completely as expected. Today, except for a few areas, mainly dry weather has prevailed.
Meanwhile, some reports claiming that major floods are likely from 28 June onwards were being widely circulated on social media. These reports are completely baseless and should not be taken seriously. There is no indication of a widespread flood situation over the coming days based on the latest weather analysis.
That said, people should not lower their guard completely. The main weather hazard during the next few days will be flash floods, not large-scale river flooding.
The atmosphere is expected to remain favourable for short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly across parts of the Jammu region. Such rain spells may last only a few minutes to a couple of hours, but can dump a significant amount of rainfall in a very short time. This is sufficient to trigger flash floods, waterlogging, landslides, mudslides, and a sudden rise in local streams and nallahs. In a few locations, some streams and rivers may briefly touch or exceed danger levels before receding once the rainfall subsides.
During the next five days, a few isolated locations have a high probability of witnessing very heavy showers within a short duration. Cloudbursts also cannot be ruled out, especially over hilly and mountainous areas.
Forecast Insights: Kashmir Weather
